Will Lumber Prices Go Down in 2027?
A meaningful drop is unlikely. After modest relief in 2026, framing lumber is expected to be roughly flat to +3% in 2027. Materials inflation has cooled from the 2021–2022 peaks, but the consensus points to stable-to-slightly-higher prices rather than a return to pre-pandemic lows.
The single biggest variable is the tariff schedule on Canadian softwood. The temporary broad import tariff expired in mid-2026, and the follow-on schedule could move lumber prices either direction heading into 2027 — see our 2027 tariff impact guide for the full picture.
2027 Lumber Outlook by Product
| Product | 2026 Trend | 2027 Outlook | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Framing lumber (SPF) | Modest relief | Flat to +3% | Softwood eased in 2026; tariff schedule is the swing factor |
| Engineered lumber (LVL/I-joists) | Elevated | +2–5% | Sticky; less exposed to raw log swings |
| Plywood / OSB | Volatile | Flat to +4% | Demand-sensitive; moves with housing starts |
| Pressure-treated | Elevated | +2–4% | Chemical + lumber cost; deck season spikes |
| Canadian softwood (imported) | Tariff-exposed | Wildcard | Depends entirely on 2026–2027 tariff schedule |
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What Drives Lumber Prices in 2027
| Driver | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Tariff schedule | The temporary broad tariff expired mid-2026; the follow-on schedule on Canadian softwood is the #1 variable for 2027 |
| Housing starts | More building = more demand = firmer prices; a soft market keeps lumber cheap |
| Sawmill capacity | North American mill output and curtailments swing supply quickly |
| Interest rates | Rates drive housing starts, which drive lumber demand |
| Wildfire / weather | Supply disruptions can spike prices seasonally |
How to Protect Your Framing Budget
With prices unlikely to fall and tariffs uncertain, locking your framing package is a reasonable hedge.
Fixed-price contracts with escalation caps protect against sudden lumber spikes.
Ordering framing when mills are quieter (softer housing demand) can shave cost.
Steel, ICF or panelized systems reduce exposure to lumber swings on some projects.
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Frequently Asked Questions — Lumber 2027
Will lumber prices go down in 2027?
A meaningful drop is unlikely. After modest relief in 2026, framing lumber is expected to be roughly flat to +3% in 2027. The single biggest variable is the tariff schedule on Canadian softwood — the temporary broad tariff expired in mid-2026, and the follow-on schedule could push prices either way. Plan for stable-to-slightly-higher framing costs rather than a return to pre-2021 lows.
Why is lumber so tied to tariffs?
The U.S. imports a large share of its softwood framing lumber from Canada, so duties on Canadian softwood flow directly into framing costs. When tariffs rise, domestic prices tend to follow. A temporary broad tariff expired in mid-2026, and without a well-designed replacement schedule, builders could see abrupt changes in lumber price levels and availability heading into 2027.
How much does lumber affect the cost of building a house?
Framing (mostly lumber) typically accounts for about 14–18% of total construction cost. So a 10% swing in lumber prices moves a whole-house budget by roughly 1.5–3%. It is significant but not the largest single line item — labor and site conditions usually matter more.
Should I lock in lumber pricing for a 2027 build?
Given the tariff uncertainty and the consensus that costs will not fall, locking material pricing early is a reasonable hedge. Many builders write fixed-price contracts with escalation caps to protect against sudden lumber spikes. If you are on a tight budget, timing your framing package when mills are quieter can also help.
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