Construction Material Prices in 2027: Full Forecast

Unlikely overall. The consensus forecast is +3–5% for materials in aggregate: lumber roughly flat (0–3%), concrete up 4–6%, and metals — steel, rebar, copper — up 5–10%. No major category is projected to fall. The main downside scenario for prices is a demand slump, which would come with its own problems for anyone building.

Framing lumber is forecast at $410–$460 per thousand board feet in 2027 — essentially flat to slightly up from 2026. Mill capacity has recovered from the pandemic-era whiplash, and the main swing factors are Canadian softwood duties and whether falling mortgage rates trigger a demand surge. See our dedicated 2027 lumber price forecast for scenario detail.

For tariff-exposed and metal-heavy items — windows, steel, copper wiring, HVAC equipment, appliances — early procurement at 2026 prices is usually worth it if your builder can store or schedule them. For lumber, drywall and commodities with flat forecasts, pre-buying gains little and adds storage risk. The standard play: lock the volatile 30% of your materials list, float the rest.

The temporary broad tariff expired mid-2026, and the follow-on schedule shapes 2027. Directly affected: steel, aluminum, copper and imported components (windows, appliances, electrical gear). Indirectly: everything containing them. Our forecast assumes moderate follow-on tariffs; a more aggressive schedule would push metals from +5–8% toward +10–15%.

Carry a 10–15% total contingency, weighted toward metals and imported components. If you sign a fixed-price contract with an escalation cap, you can trim that to 7–10%. On a $340,000 build, that is roughly $25,000–$50,000 of headroom — the difference between an annoyance and a stalled project.