Quick Answer
Lumber prices are trading around $530-$610 per thousand board feet heading into 2026 — well off the 2021 peak, with a gradual 6-8% annual increase forecast for the rest of the year.
Spring 2026 may offer softer pricing as construction activity cools, particularly in single-family housing starts. A gradual recovery is generally expected in the second half of the year as the market stabilizes — not a sharp spike like the one seen in 2021, but a steady upward trend driven by tariffs, mill production decisions, and renewed housing demand.
The biggest wildcard remains tariff policy on Canadian softwood lumber, which supplies roughly 85% of U.S. imports and faces duty rates as high as 45%.
Lumber Price History and Forecast
How framing lumber pricing has moved from the pandemic peak through the 2026 outlook.
| Period | Price (per MBF) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| May 2021 (pandemic peak) | $1,418 / thousand board feet | An unprecedented spike driven by pandemic supply chain disruption and a housing demand surge — roughly 280% above pre-pandemic norms. |
| Late 2025 | ~$530–$610 / thousand board feet | Prices have moderated significantly from the 2021 peak but remain well above pre-pandemic baselines. |
| Early 2026 (spring) | Soft pricing expected | Cooling construction activity is creating favorable buying conditions in the first half of the year, per industry analysts. |
| Late 2026 (forecast) | Gradual recovery, +6–8% annually | A moderate increase is expected in the second half of the year as housing starts stabilize, not a dramatic spike. |
Budget for Current Framing Costs
Get a cost estimate reflecting current lumber pricing
Framing typically represents around 11% of total build cost — make sure your estimate reflects 2026 market conditions.
What's Driving Lumber Prices in 2026
Six factors shaping the lumber market beyond simple supply and demand.
Canada supplies roughly 85% of U.S. softwood lumber imports. Tariff rates on Canadian softwood have reached as high as 45%, and there is no quick domestic substitute when sawmill production cannot absorb that volume gap.
Lumber mills do not always run at full capacity. Temporary production cuts or closures tighten supply quickly and can push prices up even when underlying demand feels steady.
Total housing starts reached 1.32 million units in mid-2025, with most growth in multifamily projects while single-family starts actually fell 4.6%. Weaker single-family demand has helped keep framing lumber pricing softer than it might otherwise be.
Even buyers not building a new home affect lumber pricing — outdoor project demand (decks, fences) adds seasonal pressure, typically peaking in spring and summer.
A weaker U.S. dollar makes imported lumber and lumber-adjacent hardware more expensive even independent of tariff rates, compounding cost pressure from multiple directions simultaneously.
Mills and distributors are still working through elevated inventories from buyers who front-loaded purchases in 2025 in anticipation of tariff increases — this overhang has helped keep early 2026 pricing softer than tariff rates alone would suggest.
How Much Lumber a Typical Home Actually Needs
Material quantities for a typical single-family home, useful for estimating your own framing budget.
| Material | Typical Quantity | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Framing lumber (2x4, 2x6, 2x8, 2x10, headers, LVL beams) | 14,000 – 18,000 board feet | For a typical single-family home; varies with square footage and design complexity. |
| OSB sheathing | 7,000 – 9,000 sq ft | Walls and roof deck combined, using roughly a 1.5x floor area factor. |
| Roofing materials | 22 – 28 squares (100 sq ft each) | Varies with roof pitch and overhang design. |
Tariffs Are the Structural Factor Behind Elevated Pricing
Unlike the 2021 spike, which was driven by demand and supply chain disruption, today's elevated lumber pricing is substantially policy-driven. Canadian softwood lumber tariffs — reaching as high as 45% on top of a 10% base rate — directly affect the roughly 85% of U.S. softwood imports that come from Canada, with no quick domestic substitute available at scale.
This matters for forecasting because policy changes can shift lumber pricing independent of underlying construction demand, in ways that traditional supply-and-demand models don't fully capture.
Want the full tariff picture?
See how 2026 tariffs affect every major construction material, not just lumber.
See Tariff Impact →Financing your framing phase?
See how construction loan draws align with framing and material costs.
See Draw Schedule →Timing Tips for Your Lumber Purchase
Lumber pricing moves on its own cycle, and timing your purchase — or at least your contract pricing terms — around that cycle can meaningfully affect your budget.
Industry analysts point to softening construction activity creating favorable conditions for lumber purchases in the first half of 2026, before an expected gradual recovery in the back half of the year.
Forecasts generally point to 6-8% annual price increases as housing starts stabilize — enough to matter for budgeting, but not the kind of dramatic spike seen in 2021.
If current tariff restrictions persist through 2026, expect more price volatility and potential supply tightness during peak construction season. If tariff relief materializes, expect more stable, predictable pricing.
NAHB publishes a framing lumber composite price index that captures broader trends better than any single product's spot price — useful for timing larger purchases.
Since framing typically represents one of the earliest major draws in a construction loan, understanding lumber pricing trends helps you anticipate that specific phase of your budget more accurately.
Recommended Tools and Reports
Cost Report
Get a full build cost estimate reflecting current lumber and material pricing.
Get Cost Report →Tariff Impact Calculator
See how tariffs are affecting your specific build cost across all materials.
Calculate Impact →Contractor Bid Analyzer
Confirm your framing bid reflects current lumber market pricing.
Analyze Bid →Is My Framing Bid Too High?
Review your framing contractor's bid for missing scope and fair pricing.
Check Framing Bid →Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current price of lumber in 2026?
Framing lumber futures have been trading in the range of roughly $530 to $610 per thousand board feet heading into 2026, well below the 2021 pandemic peak of $1,418 but still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. Exact pricing varies by product type, region, and current market conditions.
Will lumber prices go down in 2026?
Early 2026 may offer softer pricing due to cooling construction activity, particularly in single-family housing starts. However, forecasts generally point to a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, with moderate annual increases in the 6-8% range rather than a continued decline.
Why are lumber prices still elevated compared to before the pandemic?
Several factors are keeping prices above historical baselines: ongoing tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber (which supplies about 85% of U.S. imports), persistent labor shortages affecting the broader supply chain, and structural changes in mill production capacity that haven't fully reversed since pandemic-era disruptions.
How much lumber does a typical new home require?
A typical single-family home requires roughly 14,000 to 18,000 board feet of framing lumber, plus 7,000 to 9,000 square feet of OSB sheathing for walls and roof decking. Exact quantities depend on square footage, design complexity, and number of stories.
Is now a good time to lock in lumber pricing for my build?
Given current forecasts pointing to softer spring 2026 pricing followed by a gradual recovery later in the year, locking in pricing or placing orders earlier in the year may offer a cost advantage — though tariff policy remains an unpredictable factor that could shift this outlook.
What is the difference between lumber futures and retail lumber prices?
Lumber futures reflect wholesale market pricing and tend to move faster than what homeowners see at the retail level. Retail prices typically lag futures movements — meaning a futures price drop does not always show up immediately in what a lumberyard quotes a homeowner or contractor.
Before You Lock In Pricing
Get a Cost Estimate Reflecting Current Lumber Pricing
Framing is one of your largest budget lines — make sure your estimate matches 2026 market conditions.